Bitcoin is setting up for an incredibly bullish next 12 months, but before we get there, let’s first talk about the short term.
Before we get to the long-term outlook, we need to survive the short term, and right now, Bitcoin is dropping hard.
Then how low can Bitcoin go? Bitcoin price dipped below $60,000. This already scares a lot of investors and Bitcoin holders.
I think it’s very possible that Bitcoin hits $54,000 again. This would put us at the bottom of the range we’ve been trading in for the past 6 months.
Bitcoin has hit this bottom range four big times over the last 6 months, so if it hits this area again, it would not surprise me. It would be par for the course—a buying opportunity.
Anytime we see blood in the streets like this, try to orient yourself and think about it like Bitwise’s senior investment strategist does: as a buying opportunity.
Bitwise is buying Bitcoin, and Bitwise is telling their clients to buy, too.
They put out a note a couple of weeks ago arguing that history suggests buying Bitcoin when there is blood on the streets.
I decided to look at every instance during the past 10 years when the S&P 500 dropped by 2% or more in a day, and then I compared it to the performance of both Bitcoin and gold over the following year.
What I found was that, on average, gold returned 8% over the next 12 months, while Bitcoin returned 190%.
So, my takeaway for investors is that history tells you that the next time the stock market sells off, you’re better off buying Bitcoin as a long-term portfolio hedge instead of gold.
And guess what?
Bitcoin could go lower than this. And if we do, that would be a major buying opportunity.
This has happened a lot throughout Bitcoin’s history. If you’re a believer like me, you understand this asset class has a lot of potential.
There’s a lot of reason to think that in the next 12 months specifically, things are going to get insanely bullish.
If you don’t believe me, Bitwise’s senior investment strategist takes us through every single reason he expects Bitcoin’s price to rise, and he even gives a price prediction at the end.
Gold is a mature asset, and as a result, it doesn’t have much long-term appreciation.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is still an emergent asset in its early adoption phase of institutional and global consumer adoption. It has strong store-of-value properties, limited supply, and decreasing new issuance of Bitcoin. Over the long term, it should perform as a great store of value.
I think that coupled with its growth properties, being an early adopted asset that is growing in acceptance around the world, these two characteristics make it a great long-term store of value for your wealth.
So obviously, Bitcoin is going to go up in the future. I think we’re all believers in this.
Many people have been asking me about altcoins, and we’re approaching one of the biggest altcoin cycles that you will ever see.
I think we’re getting to the final part where Bitcoin outperforms, and I think next year you’ll actually see altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Wow, so it sounds like you’re saying sometime in the next four to six months is the best time ever to buy altcoins?
Well, in a more risk-averse way to say it, I guess normally what happens is this:
Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin for the last two and a half years, but it has gone through the same pattern with Bitcoin two times before. It sets a low, bounces to a double top, then comes back down and eventually breaks below that low. You can see that it broke below it in November 2016, and then it broke below it in July 2019. Bitcoin then bottomed out within one to two months. In 2016, it bottomed out one month later, and in 2019, it bottomed out two months later.
Altcoins really rally hard, and that makes sense to me.
In 2025, after Bitcoin clearly breaks over its all-time highs, Arthur Hayes from BitMEX recently said that he thinks only after Bitcoin clears $70,000 and Ethereum reclaims $4,000 will we see a massive alt season.
I think we see that almost every cycle, where Bitcoin breaks all-time highs and people who have been in the market for a while feel the wealth effect. They think:
I’m not getting the returns I used to with the higher caps, so I’ll put some money into lower caps.
Plus, new people coming into the market are thinking:
I missed out on Bitcoin or Ethereum, I need to put it in the more risky plays.
Then you just get this massive alt cycle.
It’s pretty clear. The last two alt seasons were in the post-halving year. If you’re wanting an alt season, you want to see Bitcoin dominance go down.
The last time we had a big yearly candle where dominance went down was the post-halving year of 2021. The time before that was the post-halving year of 2017.
Essentially, people who were riding the Bitcoin train during tighter monetary policy know what’s up with the crypto markets. But when you get to the post-halving year and looser monetary policy, altcoins outperform.
You see a lot of new retail investors coming into the market, and those investors only ever see Bitcoin dominance go down.
When we get to 2026 and 2027, those people are likely going to think that Bitcoin dominance will keep going down, but in reality, you’ll likely just see the same thing repeat.